The Mathematics Study Program at Universitas Airlangga (UNAIR), utilizing the System Modelling KBK, organized a Guest Lecture on the theme “Estimating Reproduction Numbers of Infectious Diseases.” This event took place on Tuesday, May 30, 2023, at the Meeting Room of the Faculty of Science and Technology, featuring Prof. Agus Hasan, PhD, from NTNU: Norwegian University of Science and Technology, as the distinguished speaker.
Commencing his presentation, Prof. Agus provided an overview of various aspects related to Norway, encompassing the country’s focus on education and research development, particularly in the domains of oil and shipping. Consequently, research endeavours in fields such as Mathematics are aligned with these primary areas of emphasis.
Pertaining to the central theme, Prof. Agus, who had previously been part of the Covid-19 response team in Indonesia, elucidated the fundamental distinctions between Basic Reproduction Number and Effective Reproduction Number. The former is calculated in natural conditions before external interventions, such as lockdown policies, mask-wearing, and quarantine, whereas the latter incorporates community behaviour as a response to the disease’s spread. Prof. Agus clarified, “If the reproduction number exceeds one, the disease will proliferate; however, if it is less than one, the disease will diminish.”
Moreover, Prof. Agus delved into various models of disease spread, ranging from simplistic models with three compartments (susceptible, infected, and recovered populations) to intricate models with multiple compartments. Drawing from his experiences in the Covid-19 response team, he outlined the challenges encountered, stating, “Due to limited testing equipment, we must consider the uncertainty surrounding individuals suspected of being infected.”
